Track asymmetric-payoff whale trades on Polymarket.
We watch $25K+ whale BUYs at price 0.20–0.30 and follow them to actual market resolution. The backtest motivated the thesis. Live calibration is the test, and we publish every fire.
See live signals, the strategy leaderboard, and the full unfiltered track record — including the drawdowns.
Live · audit overlay
Last 5 $25K+ whale BUYs
11m$74.5K0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241NO 0.60Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?
11m$75.6K0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241NO 0.60Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?
20m$47.0K0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241NO 0.59Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?
43m$164.5K0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465NO 0.62Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
Live feed
Whale Activity
All $25K+ Polymarket BUYs with our methodology badges per row. Filter by conviction, watch, killed-band, net-negative.
Flagship subset
Cheap Conviction
The subset that fires our live gate — $25K+ at price 0.20–0.30 from proven wallets, held to resolution.
Public competition
Strategies
Paper portfolios trading our signals with proper risk management. Public PnL leaderboard.
Honesty rule
Track Record
Every signal, every outcome, stop-loss audit, calibration by band, backtest with fees + temporal Δ.
Research
Audits
Independent calibration audits of prediction market alpha. Backtest re-runs, stop-loss verifications, and what didn't work.
Cross-venue
Arbitrage
Polymarket vs Kalshi spreads after fees + slippage. The only purely arithmetic edge we publish.
Independent analytics on top of Polymarket's public APIs. Paper trading is virtual — no real money is at risk on this site.